US Faces Tourism Hit Over Proposed ESTA Changes
Proposed changes to the US Visa Waiver Programme could carry a heavy economic cost, according to new research by the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC). The plans would require ESTA applicants to disclose more detailed information about their social media activity. Analysis by WTTC, with GSIQ and Oxford Economics, suggests the impact on jobs, spending and visitor numbers could be significant.
The report estimates international visitor spending could fall by up to $15.7 billion, with as many as 157,000 jobs at risk. Survey data from ESTA-eligible markets shows 66 per cent of respondents are already aware of the proposed changes. That level of awareness suggests any shift in policy could quickly influence travel decisions and booking behaviour.
"US border security is critical, but the planned policy changes will hurt job creation, something the US administration values highly."
One in three international respondents said they would be less likely to visit the United States within the next two to three years if the new rules were introduced. Only 12 per cent indicated they would be more inclined to travel. Economic modelling outlines a high-impact scenario in which arrivals from ESTA countries drop by 4.7 million in 2026, a fall of 23.7 per cent compared with expected levels.
Key projected impacts
- Up to 4.7 million fewer arrivals in 2026
- Visitor spending down by as much as $15.7 billion
- Travel and tourism GDP loss of $21.5 billion
- Up to 157,000 US jobs at risk
Beyond headline figures, the findings suggest reputational damage. Many surveyed travellers believe stricter disclosure rules would make the country appear less welcoming for holidays, conferences and business trips. Respondents also questioned whether the changes would improve personal safety. The study notes the US has already seen 11 million fewer international visitors between 2019 and 2025, adding pressure in a competitive global market.
The discussion now focuses on trade-offs. Border controls are a government priority, but tourism provides income for millions of people and supports local businesses across the country. If some visitors decide to travel to Canada, Japan, the UK or Western Europe instead, airlines, hotels and tour operators in the US could lose business. Changes to ESTA rules could therefore influence not only entry procedures, but also the strength of the country’s travel industry.