Tourist experts have provided forecasts for 2024: what good and bad news to expect
Although the rush for travel in 2024 has not yet commenced, experts are making assumptions about changes in the upcoming tourist season based on the successes and failures of the past. Some forecasts bring good news for passengers and airlines, while others may be less favorable for tourists.
Experts from Going (formerly Scott's Cheap Flights) shared their insights with Thrillist regarding the upcoming travel season and the aviation industry.
Ticket prices
Passengers can take delight in the prediction that economy-class flight prices will not undergo significant changes in 2024. Experts are 70% confident that airfares will remain within a 5% increase or decrease compared to the prices at the end of 2023.
New records
Building on last year's trends, travel experts anticipate that this year will set new records for the number of travelers. Despite some believing that the post-pandemic rush has subsided, Going predicts a 70% increase in tourist traffic.
Fewer canceled flights
While the issue of airline regularity and schedules remains uncertain, experts predict a 2% decrease in the number of canceled flights. The confidence level for this forecast is 60%, recognizing that certain factors like weather conditions, passenger behavior, and onboard malfunctions are unpredictable.
Additional fees
Going is 90% certain that the fee for changing economy class tickets will become a thing of the past. This implies a slight reduction in financial risks for travelers.
Baggage fees
Unfortunately, one of the less favorable predictions is that many airlines have announced plans to increase the price of baggage transportation. Going is 70% confident that checked baggage fees will continue to rise, possibly reaching $35.
Depreciation of accumulated miles
Experienced travelers relying on accumulated miles might be disappointed to learn of the predicted devaluation. In 2023, Delta made changes to its bonus program, eliciting a negative reaction. Experts believe that in 2024, other American carriers may follow suit.