By 2050, the number of railway passengers could nearly double
According to a study commissioned by the Railway Industry Association (RIA), demand is projected to increase by 37-97% by that time. The report, conducted by consulting firm Steer, states that under "any scenario," the number of people willing to travel by train "will surpass the current capacity."
This growth, as emphasized in the report, will require adaptation from public policy, rail services, and operators. The researchers note that railway usage has already returned to about 90% of pre-COVID-19 levels, with a full recovery expected over the next four to seven years, as reported by dailymail.co.
Separate data from the Rail and Road Administration indicates that 1.7 billion passenger trips were made in the 2019-2020 fiscal year, largely unaffected by the virus crisis. However, the pandemic has disrupted the steady growth in network usage since the privatization of rail transport in the mid-1990s.
The RIA report highlights several factors influencing passenger numbers, including government policies related to fares, timetables, and infrastructure, as well as population and economic growth, and competition from other transportation modes.
RIA CEO Darren Kaplan explains that the report outlines various scenarios for future rail ridership growth, all of which involve an increase in passenger numbers with a significant impact on future capacity.
Kaplan adds, "Under the lowest growth scenario, even if the UK government takes no action and allows the industry to grow, rail passenger numbers will still increase by a third in the 25 years to 2050. However, if the future government adopts a bold and ambitious strategy aimed at improving the customer experience and implementing behavioral changes, the number of passengers could double by 2050, leading to a substantial increase in revenues."
The CEO emphasizes the importance of carrying out railway reform as soon as possible and developing a long-term railway strategy to accommodate this growth.
A spokesperson for the Ministry of Transportation stated, "With passenger numbers having doubled since privatization, our plans for Great British Railways will prioritize the industry's expertise, placing the customer - both passenger and freight - first. In addition to the soon-to-be published draft legislation, we are moving forward with broader reforms, including expanding access to pay-as-you-go and piloting simplified fares."
As TravelWise previously reported, Great Western Railway (GWR) has set a new UK record for the longest electric train journey.